The reason is simple: 33 states have voted for the same party in the past 5 presidential elections, and 40 of the 50 states have voted for the same party since 2000. Because these states are so crucial for 2020 and future elections, it is important to analyze how they have been trending over recent years. Together, these eight states represent 127 electoral votes — and a departure from the fairly static map of the pre-Trump era. For example, many currently Republican states, like Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004. Biden needs a robust turnout in the big cities, particularly among African-American voters. But the long-terms trends favor the Republicans in the Big Six Swing States. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. — Tim Alberta, It’s been so long since Minnesota voted Republican in a presidential election that many Democrats suspected a head fake when Trump first boasted about his intent to compete there. 2) Compete for the state’s six Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified GOP control of the state government by flipping the Iowa State House. That’s because according to the exit poll, nearly a fifth of respondents said they held an unfavorable view of both Clinton and Trump. 0. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also considered competitive. The portion of the American electorate made up of swing voters ranges from about a quarter to a third between presidential elections, according to the Pew Research Center. But the picture changes notably when we look to the Big Six Swing States. The first step, though, is being aware of the states that will determine the fate of our country. 4.9% of the 2016 votes went to third party candidates, thus rejecting Trump and Clinton, while in the 2012 election just 1.7% rejected both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. However, states that consistently vote for one party at the presidential level occasionally elect a governor of the opposite party; this is currently the case in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont, which all have Republican governors, as well as in Louisiana, Kentucky, Kansas, and Montana, which currently have Democratic governors. We don’t know what the overall lay-of-the-land will be in November 2020. [34] In this method, states and DC are ordered by margin of victory, then tabulating which state(s) were required to get to 270+ electoral votes in margin order. The nominated Republican candidate gained in five of the six states. If, "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters", "The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing", https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/swing-states-2020-election/, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/new-election-map-ohio-colorado-no-longer-swing-states-n937646, https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/, https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-post-labor-day-sprint-part-two-the-electoral-college/, "Arizona Is (Probably) Not a Swing State", "As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage", "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » SENATE 2016: FLIP FLOP", "Election Update: North Carolina Is Becoming A Problem For Trump", "Trump will be the 4th president to win the Electoral College after getting fewer votes than his opponent", "Clinton's popular vote lead surpasses 2 million", "Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else", "Clinton's Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win", Daley Remembered as Last of the Big-City Bosses, Trolling the Campuses for Swing-State Votes, "How Dem insiders rank the 2020 contenders", "The 2020 electoral map could be the smallest in years. But these guides are for those who specifically want to work towards flipping the White House in 2020. How to Help Demand Justice for Breonna Taylor, Spring 2021's Best Trends: Bras, Cutouts, Florals, Natural Moisturizers to Leave You Glowing, The Insta-Worthy Places to Visit in October, Jot Down These 2020 Voter Registration Deadlines, Does Your State Allow Vote by Mail? Consider this fact: From July 2016 until Election Day in the three Rust Belt states that Trump unexpectedly picked off — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — 94 public polls were released. 2008 hatte Obama in den aufgeführten Wechselstaaten gewonnen, dieses Mal wird es … Enjoy this post? Other states like Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio will get serious attention, but the winner in all likelihood will have to carry most of the Big Six Swing States. Marie Claire participates in various affiliate marketing programs, which means we may get paid commissions on editorially chosen products purchased through our links to retailer sites. First off, The Democratic Party has to stop thinking about ‘easy’ victories. Enter your email address to follow this blog and be alerted to new posts by email. Who Can (and Can't) Call Out Campaign Racism. With the help of Swing Left—a national grassroots organization founded after the 2016 election—we can make a difference by paying attention to the 12 Super States, a.k.a. He's running against former governor John Hickenlooper. But after the searing experience of 2016, when Trump unexpectedly took Wisconsin by fewer than 23,000 votes, every expectation is that the state will be a nail-biter again in November. Get more like it! So it is likely that both the Libertarian and Green parties will run different candidates. The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect. Still, while national polls have generated a portrait of Biden holding a commanding lead, it’s something of a mirage. With the general election quickly approaching on November 3, it's important to understand where to focus our efforts. Subscribe Today Der Begriff bezeichnet einen Staat, in dem beide große Parteien (Demokraten oder Republikaner) eine gute Chance auf den Wahlsieg haben, er also gewissermaßen auf der Kippe steht. The liberals in 2000 were Al Gore and Ralph Nader (Green). Here are the states everyone is 99.9% positive about, that will vote Liberal or Conservative unless the Democrats nominate Michael Myers or the Republicans nuke Texas. A Guide to Celebrity Presidential Endorsements, Trump Nominates Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court, Cecile Richards on Mobilizing Women to Vote, The Best Way to Honor RBG Is With Your Vote, In Maine, Sara Gideon Could Help Flip the Senate, Your Guide to the 2020 Presidential Debates. [22] Likewise, Illinois[23] and Texas were key to the outcome of the 1960 election, Florida and New Hampshire were key in deciding the 2000 election, and Ohio was important during the 2004 election. For Biden to win the state, Democrats will need something close to a blowout win in the Atlanta suburbs and a surge in Black voter turnout. [3], In 2020 FiveThirtyEight updated this analysis noting that the electoral map is "undergoing a series of changes," with some states (e.g. In the coming weeks, I’ll be publishing Swing State Guides that focus on each of these states, one at a time. In the swing states that matter, it is trench warfare: Biden’s advantage, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, is within the margin of error in half of the eight states. The number of swing voters declines when an incumbent president is seeking a second term. States of the Race. RT @CitizenActionIL: A reminder: the U.S. has 7.2 million people with COVID-19. Biden has to increase his current share among Latino voters and recapture some of the places that flipped to Trump after twice voting for President Barack Obama. The most popular use of swing state is to describe one in which the popular vote margin in a presidential race is relatively narrow and fluid, meaning that either a Republican or Democrat could win the state's electoral votes in any given election cycle. Chip in $35 to cover postage for a volunteer! In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. Overall, Trump won this group 47%-30%, suggesting that in a two-way race, Trump may have still won because of his advantage among these voters. This group was key to Trump’s surprising victory in 2016. Unsurprisingly, nearly all of the third-party voters fell into this category. In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is clear. [8] Instead, the tipping-point state that year was Michigan, as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. 2) Win the state’s nine Electoral College votes, 1) Win the state’s 29 Electoral College votes, 2) Break unified Republican control of the state government by flipping the Florida State House, 1) Flip both U.S. Senate seats up for election, 2) Compete for the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified Republican control of the state government by flipping the Georgia State House. Edited by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Two electoral votes go to the person who wins a plurality in the state, and a candidate gets one additional electoral vote for each Congressional District in which they receive a plurality. Here are the states everyone is 99.9% positive about, that will vote Liberal or Conservative unless the Democrats nominate Michael Myers or the Republicans nuke Texas. Within each of these swing states, the roadmap ahead for President Donald Trump and Joe Biden is clear. At the traditional, post-Labor Day start of the fall campaign, POLITICO is zeroing in on eight critical battlegrounds where the 2020 election will be won or lost: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Third-party voting was very high in 2016, almost surely because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were disliked by many voters. Follow me on Twitter at @DHStokyo In American politics, the term swing state (or battleground state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate by a swing in votes. States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually targeted at a higher rate with campaign visits, television advertising, get out the vote efforts by party organizers and debates. Follow us on Twitter. A recession or major war could cripple Trump. They're essentially the tipping point of who's going to win the electoral college, then win the presidency," explains Swing Left National Field Director Marisa Kanof. [16] In contrast, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 percentage points. Beyond that, we’ll see that it is important to note whether these third-party or independent candidates were liberal or conservative leaning. Miles Coleman. We may earn commission from the links on this page. A good comparison is to look at the 2000 election, when George W. Bush narrowly defeated Al Gore, compared to the 2016 election. The state of Colorado is classified as one of the mountain states; this is mainly because the state encompasses the majority of the southern Rocky Mountains. Democrats also dominated voting by mail and became competitive in several red districts where they didn’t have a prayer before. The latter, led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is preventing us from passing bi-partisan laws, like H.R.8 requiring universal background checks, that will save American lives. Both the long-term conservative trend in these six key swing states and the likely 2020 configuration of third parties favor Trump in the states that are likeliest to collectively choose the 2020 winner. Likewise, analysis of results of the 2018 midterms indicated that the "battleground states" are changing with Colorado and Ohio becoming less competitive, and Georgia and Arizona moving into swing state territory.[5][6][7]. [21], Swing states have generally changed over time. As many mathematical analysts have noted, however, the state voting in a fashion most similar to that of the nation as a whole is not necessarily the tipping-point. These states are usually targeted by both major-party campaigns, especially in competitive elections. Joe Biden's Youngest Daughter Is An Activist. Rather, Colorado was most in-step with the rest of the country. [27] Other potential swing states in 2020 include states designated as "tipping point" states by FiveThirtyEight [28], Presidential campaigns and pundits seek to keep track of the shifting electoral landscape. — Marc Caputo, The prospect of turning Georgia blue for the first time since 1992 is a stretch. The term swing state is used in two different ways. Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. [30] However, this projection was not specific to any particular election cycle, and assumed similar levels of support for both parties. I am hopeful, that if we all take some action every month, we can flip PA blue this year. Rachel Epstein is the associate editor at Marie Claire, where she covers culture, lifestyle, and politics. Because of the electoral system, the campaigns are less concerned with increasing a candidate's national popular vote, tending instead to concentrate on the popular vote only in those states which will provide the electoral votes it needs to win the election, and it is far from unheard of for a candidate to secure sufficient electoral votes while not having won the national popular vote. Note that this takes into account inherent electoral college advantages; for example, Michigan was the closest state in 2016 by end result, and Nevada was the closest state to the national popular vote result, but the tipping points that most mattered for assembling a 270 electoral vote coalition were Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. According to the 2016 presidential elections, 48.2% of the citize… The nomination of a too-liberal or unpopular Democrat could destroy Democratic chances. Missing from this swing state list are familiar presidential battlegrounds like Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. He's running against MJ Hegar. The individual campaigns have also revealed the places they are prioritizing through staffing, resource allocation, TV and radio advertising and candidate visits. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Susan Collins. [17][18] This meant that Donald Trump would have picked up New Hampshire, Nevada, and Minnesota if the popular vote had been tied, assuming a uniform shift among the battleground states. 1) Flip the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Cory Gardner. 2020 Battleground States: Where Democrats Must Fight Hard To Oust Trump | The Austin Editor, 15 Ways You Can Help Get More People Registered to Vote, 2 Sleeper Senate Races You Should Be Paying Attention To. Even a GOP challenge to it was dismissed by SCOTUS. Editors handpick every product that we feature. The tipping point state, and the next 10 states with close margins on each side, are shown as the swing states in retrospect. 2) Win the state’s four Electoral College votes, 1) Win the state’s 16 Electoral College votes, 2) Flip control of the Republican-led Michigan State House. What is a swing state? Obama lost Indiana by more than ten percentage points in the closer 2012 election, but triumphed anyway as Indiana's electoral votes were not directly needed for a coalition of 270 votes; other lightly-Republican leaning states such as North Carolina and Arizona were more plausible Democratic pick-ups in 2012. That district is one of the most famous gerrymandered districts in the country. The guides are meant to be used both by folks who live in the swing states, and also people who want to help move the needle in one of the swing states even though they may live in a reliably blue or red state. Here, a list and map of the swing states that could determine a Democratic or Republican victory in the 2020 presidential election. But two months before the general election, the race has tightened and both Trump and Biden are pouring millions of dollars into the state. She's running against Captain Mark Kelly, who's the husband of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords. [14][15] Additionally, this "split" in votes was much larger in both directions than in previous elections, such as the 2000 election. Ohio has gained its reputation as a regular swing state after 1980,[24][25] and last voted against the winner in 1960. This is a chart of swing states using the methodology of Nate Silverfor determining tipping point states, but including the other states in close contention in recent elections, ranked by margin of victory. [31], The electoral college encourages political campaigners to focus most of their efforts on courting swing states. The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. His campaign is convinced there is. 2) Compete for the state’s 38 Electoral College votes, 3) Break unified GOP control of the state government by flipping the Texas State House, 1) Win the state’s 10 Electoral College votes, 2) Protect Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ veto power by preventing GOP supermajorities in the Wisconsin State Senate and State Assembly, 3) Lay the groundwork to flip the state legislature in 2022. He's running against Cal Cunningham. In addition to (virtually) engaging with voters, volunteering, and fundraising for campaigns in the swing states, record voter turnout is key. — Laura Barrón-López, Biden has a marginal lead over Trump in polls here. Or they could have large numbers of swing voters, those who tend to vote for individual candidates and not the party and have no loyalty to a party.